Everybody Knows That — But Is It True?
Posted by John Kullman on July 19, 2010 · 1 Comment
Everybody Knows That — But Is It True?
We all have heard for years from the media that you are more likely to be killed by someone you know than by a stranger. The inference this “fact” creates makes self-protection with a firearm futile. The person who knows you will wait to strike when you are away from your gun. But what statistical analysis is this weathered fact based on?
The FBI tallies crime statistics for the Department of Justice. A typical year is presented in the book More Guns Less Crime, by John Lott, Jr. According to the FBI, 18% of murders were done by family members, 40% by criminals who knew their victim and only 13% of murder was done by a stranger to the victim.
The problem is the FBI defines “murderers who know their victims” very broadly. So broadly that it is almost laughable. Rival gang members, drug pushers and their clients, prostitutes and their clients, and cab drivers killed by their customers are all considered to be people who knew each other. If this isn’t bad enough, in 30% of all cases, the relationship between criminal and victim couldn’t be determined. And yet this classification isn’t added to the stranger category.
Media stories love to add a little statistical evidence to their anti-firearms stories. This gives them credibility to their mostly emotionally driven stories. But don’t be fooled. Statistical evidence can be easily manipulated to a biased opinion, and in this case to become something everybody knows.
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